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About That Market Crash....

By LINDSAY FRICKS

About that market crash…

 

I’m still plagued by questions of impending doom in the housing market. Despite tons of data available that should ease these fears, I still see a shocking amount of people waiting on the sidelines to make a move. Is this you?

 

Sidenote, I started my career as an analyst for General Mills. I absolutely LOVE when I have numbers and facts to support my story. So today I’m going to share some of my favorite charts that I use when evaluating the general health of our loca Arizonal housing market. 

 

Active Listings- The green line is 2019! In the Greater Phoenix area we have significantly less listings available than the previous three years. Nearly 20% fewer homes for sale than this time last year. 

 

Buyers: You’re certainly feeling the strain of less homes available. If you plan to purchase, and I suggest you do, then I would be prepared to be patient and then react with cat like reflexes when the right property comes available. 

 

Sellers: Competition is low, low, low. If you have a home to sell there’s likely a ready and willing person to buy it.

Active Listing Weekly Counts - Compared by Year

Monthly Sales- This is definitely an eye chart, but the moral of the story here is that we have outpaced 2018 sales significantly over the last six months. This really showcases how high demand is for housing in our market. All the people are moving in here right now, fleeing California and colder climates for our sunny and 70 degree winter weather…can you even blame them? 

 

Buyers: Sales outpacing the amount of homes available drives housing market appreciation (read as dolla dolla bills). If you think the prices are going to dramatically fall a la 2008 you’re wrong… just saying.


Sellers: I don’t have a crystal ball but these migration trends didn’t start overnight and they certainly won’t change swiftly. So I’d love to help you sell now, but you’re probably okay to wait a bit too…at your own risk.

Phoenix Sales per month

Monthly Average Sales Price Per Square Foot- Regardless if you’re a buyer or seller this metric is critical. This is how much is actually paid per square foot at closing…not on a listing, which is typically higher. As you can see, people…Greater Phoenix Area are paying 6.4% more per square foot than they did the same time last year. 

 

Buyers: Waiting to buy will cost you more and you risk interest rates going up which can negatively impact your buying power. 

 

Sellers: Timing the peak is next to impossible…if you want to make a move or upgrade, do so while interest rates are still in your favor. 

Phoenix Monthly average sales per sq. ft.

Inventory-  This is probably my favorite chart of all because it compares our historical sales rates to current active listings. This metric shows us that if no other houses went up for sale, then every single active listing would be scooped up in a matter of 50 days…. Y’all, that’s less than two months which is LOW!!!!

 

Buyers: Patience people. We will find you a house. You will love it. Deep breaths. 

 

Sellers: OMG please help!

Phoenix Days of inventory

Welp, thanks for geeking out on the numbers with me! This is SUPER broad information and I highly suggest working with a seasoned professional (ahem…me) who can narrow these metrics for your specific neighborhood. 

 

*Source: I share this information with you through my subscription to the Cromford Associates Market Report. Only ~1,200 of the 80,000 agents in Arizona purchase this super rich data source.

 

Lindsay Fricks, Helping you, your family and friend Live & Love in Arizona

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Median Home Price

$325,000

Annual Appreciation Rate

+7%

Estimated Population

450k

Median Age

34

East
Valley

why you want to live here

The two largest and most popular cities in the East Valley are Gilbert and Chandler. Once known for agriculture, the area has now been transformed into some of the most well known suburbs. Both cities have experienced tremendous growth in population and along with it now has all the amenities of larger cities. The suburbs are highly focused around families and have lots of parks, recreation and many family events year-round.

Median Home Price

$261,096

Annual Appreciation Rate

+8%

Estimated Population

1.6M

Median Age

33

Central
Phoenix

why you want to live here

Phoenix is the heart of The Valley of the Sun and capital of Arizona. Known for warm temperatures year-round and sprawling urban space surrounded by desert mountains. Phoenix is the 6th largest city in the US and home to nearly 1.6 million people. Phoenix has just about something to offer everyone: numerous golf course, professional sports teams, hiking trails, concerts, festivals and much more. With an affordable cost of living there’s a place for everyone with the Phoenix metro.

Median Home Price

$308,750

Annual Appreciation Rate

+8%

Estimated Population

174k

Median Age

28.5

Tempe

why you want to live here

Tempe is a city just east of Phoenix, in Arizona. Its striking Tempe Center for the Arts hosts concerts, dance and comedy shows. Nearby, Tempe Town Lake is dotted with kayaks, pedal boats and paddleboards. Tempe Beach Park hosts outdoor festivals. Rising above the city, Hayden Butte is a mountain dotted with centuries-old rock art. Sporting events and concerts are held at Wells Fargo Arena.

Median Home Price

$725,000

Annual Appreciation Rate

8%

Estimated Population

36,241

Median Age

39

Scottsdale

why you want to live here

Scottsdale has long had a reputation as one of the most affluent cities in the West most well known for high end golf, spas, resorts, restaurants and shopping. There are over 27 golf courses located within the Scottsdale boundaries. The Southern part of Scottsdale is home to the historic Old Town area. The southwestern charm, numerous restaurants, bars and shopping as well as exciting nightlight make Old Town a hot spot for both young and old. Central Scottsdale is home to many popular golf communities such as McCormick Ranch, Gainey Ranch and Kierland Commons.  North Scottsdale is home to to two of the valleys largest annual events: the Barrett Jackson Auto Auction and the Waste Management Open PGA tournament. These events along with the 5 professional baseball spring training facilities bring millions of visitors into the area throughout the Spring months.

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